Update, October 6, 2026: the Bank of Canada held its policy rate at 2.25% on June 10, July 15 and September 2, 2026. It has been 2.25% since October 29, 2025, and the next scheduled decision is October 28, 2026. Read our report on the June 10 decision. The preview below was written on June 6, 2026. Corrections: it originally said the rate had been 2.25% since April 29, 2026 (it has been 2.25% since October 29, 2025; April 29 was a hold), and it quoted a range for five-year fixed rates and a days-on-market figure that we could not source; those have been removed.
Preview, written June 6, 2026, before the decision.
The Bank of Canada makes its next scheduled rate announcement on Wednesday, June 10, 2026 at 9:45 a.m. ET. The policy rate is 2.25%, where the Bank has held it since October 29, 2025. The question is whether it holds again or cuts by a quarter point, and what either outcome means for Greater Toronto Area buyers, sellers and mortgage holders.
Where rates stand
After cutting through 2024 and 2025, the Bank has held at 2.25% at each decision since late October 2025. At that policy rate, the major banks' prime rate is 4.45%; prime is what variable-rate mortgages and home equity lines of credit are priced from. Five-year fixed mortgage rates are priced mainly off Government of Canada bond yields, so they don't move one-for-one with the Bank's decisions.
The case for a hold, and for a cut
The case for holding is that inflation has been running above the 2% target, pushed up by energy prices, and the Bank wants to be sure that doesn't spread. The case for a cut rests on a soft economy: weak first-quarter growth and an unemployment rate well above its level of a few years ago. The June decision comes without a full Monetary Policy Report; the next report, with updated forecasts, comes with the July 15, 2026 decision.
What it means for buyers
A quarter-point move changes payments only modestly. As an illustration, on a $700,000 mortgage with a 25-year amortization at about 4%, a 0.25-point change moves the monthly payment by about $95. What matters more is qualifying: under the stress test you must qualify at the greater of 5.25% or your contract rate plus 2 points (for example, 6% at a 4.0% contract rate). If you're shopping, ask lenders about rate holds on a pre-approval and how long they last.
- Variable-rate borrowers see any change in the Bank's rate passed through prime.
- Fixed-rate shoppers should watch bond yields more than the announcement itself.
- Renewing in 2026? A Bank of Canada staff analysis estimated that about 60% of outstanding mortgages renew in 2025 or 2026, and most of those borrowers will see higher payments than before. Budget for that whatever the Bank does on June 10.
What it means for sellers
Stable rates support buyer demand, but pricing still decides how fast a home sells. Start from recent sold prices in your area; a free instant home valuation is a quick first look before an agent's comparative market analysis.
Track the impact on your own home
With My Home you can follow your home's estimated value and model your mortgage and renewal timing.
Key dates
- June 10, 2026: rate announcement (9:45 a.m. ET)
- July 15, 2026: rate announcement and Monetary Policy Report
Frequently asked questions
Does a Bank of Canada cut lower fixed mortgage rates?
Not directly. Fixed rates follow Government of Canada bond yields, which reflect what markets expect the Bank to do over several years. A cut that markets already expected may not move fixed rates at all.
Questions about how rates affect your buying power? Ask Zara, Summitly's AI virtual agent, any time, or talk to a licensed Summitly agent.
