The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) reported 1,914 condo apartment sales in May 2026 across the GTA, up 2.3% year-over-year but still 18% below the May ten-year average. The average condo apartment selling price was $696,800 — essentially flat (-0.2%) compared with May 2025 — while the MLS HPI Benchmark for condo apartments declined a marginal 0.8% to $668,400. With 9,840 active listings against 1,914 monthly sales, the GTA condo apartment segment sits at 5.1 months of inventory — clearly buyer's market territory.
The state of the GTA condo market in May 2026
The GTA condo apartment segment is the most lopsided major sub-market in Ontario today. Demand has stabilized, but supply continues to swell faster than absorption can keep up. Three structural forces explain why.
- Pre-construction completions are at all-time highs. Roughly 23,400 GTA condo apartment units completed in 2025 and another 19,800 are scheduled for 2026. Many investor-owners who bought pre-construction in 2018-2020 cannot achieve the rental cash flow they underwrote, so they list for sale at closing or shortly after.
- Investor cash flow math is negative. A typical $620,000 one-bedroom downtown condo with 20% down and a 4.49% five-year fixed mortgage carries at roughly $3,650 per month including condo fees, property taxes and the Toronto VHT (where applicable). Market rent for that same unit is roughly $2,250. The $1,400 monthly negative carry has pushed many small-portfolio investors to exit.
- Toronto Vacant Home Tax is biting. The Toronto VHT at 3% of assessed value applies to units occupied as principal residence less than six months annually. For a $650,000 assessed-value condo, that's roughly $19,500 per year — a meaningful tax on investor-owners trying to wait out market softness.
City of Toronto (416) condo apartment numbers
Within the 416, condo apartment sales totalled 1,328 in May 2026 at an average price of $702,300. The benchmark price was $674,900. Days on market averaged 31, considerably longer than the GTA-wide average of 24 across all property types. Sale-to-list price ratios sat at 97.8% — buyers are routinely negotiating 2-3% off asking.
Downtown core: CityPlace, Liberty Village, Entertainment District
The downtown core is the softest part of the GTA condo market. CityPlace one-bedroom condos averaged $608,400 in May 2026 (-2.4% YoY), with months of inventory at 6.8. Liberty Village one-bedrooms averaged $618,500 (-1.9%). Entertainment District buildings near King West and Bathurst saw the highest concession activity, with sellers covering legal fees, including parking and even offering capital allowances at closing.
King East / Distillery / St. Lawrence
End-user-favoured neighbourhoods held value better. The Distillery District two-bedroom condos averaged $1,148,200 (flat YoY) and St. Lawrence Market condos averaged $824,500. Buildings with strong amenities, larger floorplates and family-suitable layouts have been the safest end-user bets.
Midtown: Yonge-Eglinton and Forest Hill
The Eglinton Crosstown LRT opening continued to support midtown condo values. Yonge-Eglinton two-bedroom condos averaged $892,600, while Forest Hill condos held above $1.1M. Mature buildings near LRT stations outperformed pre-construction-heavy stretches.
905 condo apartment segment
The 905 condo apartment market totalled 586 sales in May 2026 at an average price of $682,300 (+1.1% YoY). Mississauga's Square One area, Vaughan's VMC (around the TTC Line 1 extension), and Markham's Unionville saw the most activity. The Hurontario LRT progress kept investor and end-user attention on Cooksville and Hurontario corridor buildings. 905 condo days on market averaged 28 days, slightly faster than the 416, partly because the 905 has fewer assignment listings dragging the segment.
Why end-user buyers have real leverage right now
For end-user buyers planning to live in a condo for 3+ years, May 2026 is one of the most favourable windows in roughly a decade. Specific leverage points to use:
- Negotiate 2-5% under asking on units that have been on market 30+ days, especially in CityPlace, Liberty Village and pre-construction-heavy stretches
- Ask for parking and locker upgrades to be included at no additional cost
- Request flexible closing dates — sellers anxious to close are usually willing to accommodate 30-90 day windows
- Push for capital allowances — $5,000-$10,000 closing credits are increasingly common
- Require seller-paid status certificate updates if more than 60 days old
If you are thinking about buying a downtown condo, our buying guides walk through inspection, status certificate review and pre-construction-versus-resale tradeoffs. To check current affordability with your income and down payment, use Ask Zara or read our mortgage financing guides.
What's happening with pre-construction assignments
TRREB Stratus tracked roughly 2,150 active assignment listings on resale MLS at the end of May 2026. Assignment sellers (original buyers who purchased pre-construction and want to exit before closing) are routinely listing 6-12% below current resale comparables to attract buyers willing to take on the assignment process complexity. Land transfer tax treatment, HST rebate eligibility and developer-consent timelines all add friction, but for end-users who do the homework, assignments can be 8-15% cheaper than equivalent resale units.
Key cautions for assignment buyers: confirm HST rebate eligibility (you must occupy as principal residence within one year of final closing to qualify for the rental rebate alternative path), understand developer consent fees (often $5,000-$15,000), and budget for the full delta between pre-construction price and closing-date appraised value if your lender requires an updated appraisal.
Investor outlook: when does condo investing make sense again?
Condo investing math will not work in the GTA at current rent-to-price ratios until one of three things changes: meaningful rate cuts (Bank of Canada cutting another 100+ basis points), meaningful rent recovery (10%+ rent growth, which requires demand-side immigration recovery), or meaningful price correction (another 8-12% decline from current levels). Most analysts expect a combination of mild rate cuts and gradual rent recovery to slowly improve fundamentals through 2027-2028 rather than a sharp reset.
For landlords already holding GTA condo investments, our Manage Rentals service handles lease-up, screening and LTB compliance. See For Landlords for portfolio-management resources.
What to expect through summer and fall 2026
The GTA condo apartment segment is unlikely to see meaningful price recovery in 2026. Expect:
- Continued price softness in pre-construction-heavy downtown stretches (-2 to -4% YoY by year-end)
- Relative stability in end-user-favoured neighbourhoods (Leslieville, Distillery, St. Lawrence, midtown LRT corridor)
- Active listings to peak in late summer as more assignment closings hit market
- End-user demand to firm gradually as rates drift lower and the FHSA stack matures (cohorts that opened FHSAs in 2024 will have full $40,000 contribution room by 2028)
- Investor demand to remain limited until cash-flow math improves
Stay current with our monthly market updates for the latest segment-specific data.
Frequently asked questions
Are GTA condo prices going to keep falling?
Most analysts expect GTA condo apartment prices to drift sideways to mildly down through the rest of 2026 (-1 to -3% from current levels), with the softest segments being investor-grade one-bedroom units under 500 square feet, pre-construction assignment inventory, and units in buildings with very high investor-ownership ratios. End-user-favoured two-bedroom units in mature buildings near transit are more likely to hold value. A sharp further correction would require either a significant rate-cut shock that fails to materialize or a broader economic recession. The base case is gradual stabilization rather than continued decline.
What's the best Toronto neighbourhood for a first condo purchase in 2026?
For first-time end-user buyers, look at mature buildings in St. Lawrence Market, Leslieville/Riverside, Roncesvalles or the Beaches — all offer walkability, transit and stable owner-occupancy ratios. Avoid investor-heavy pre-construction-era buildings in CityPlace and Liberty Village unless you find a meaningful price discount (5%+ below comparable buildings). Midtown along the Eglinton Crosstown LRT (Yonge-Eglinton, Mt Pleasant) is a strong value play with completed LRT service finally driving real foot traffic. Always review the status certificate carefully and verify the building's reserve fund.
Is buying a pre-construction assignment a good deal?
Pre-construction assignments can offer 8-15% discounts versus equivalent resale condos, but they come with material complexity. You need to understand HST rebate eligibility (must occupy as principal residence within one year or use the rental-rebate path), developer consent fees (typically $5,000-$15,000), the gap between pre-construction price and current market appraised value (your lender will require an appraisal), and assignment-specific land transfer tax mechanics. End-user buyers who can navigate the process and have flexible closing timelines can find real value. Investors should avoid assignments at current cap-rate levels.
How much can I negotiate off a Toronto condo asking price?
In May 2026, the GTA condo sale-to-list ratio averages 97.8%, meaning typical negotiations land 2-3% below asking. But that average masks wide variation. On a downtown condo listed for 30+ days with no offers, expect to negotiate 4-7% off plus included parking, locker and closing credits. On a well-priced end-user two-bedroom in a strong building, you may need to pay full asking. The single best predictor of negotiation room is days on market: under 14 days, expect full ask; 30+ days, expect meaningful discount; 60+ days, expect aggressive negotiation power.
Does the Toronto Vacant Home Tax apply to condos rented to tenants?
No — the Toronto VHT at 3% of assessed value applies to units occupied as a principal residence less than six months in a year. Units rented to tenants for at least six months count as occupied and are exempt, provided the owner declares correctly via the annual occupancy declaration. The penalty for late or inaccurate declaration is significant. Investors should ensure they declare occupancy status by the February deadline each year, retain lease documentation, and consult with their accountant if the unit transitions between rented and vacant status during the year.
Key takeaways
- Buyer's market. 5.1 months of inventory in the GTA condo apartment segment — clearly favouring buyers.
- Prices flat. Average $696,800 (-0.2% YoY); benchmark down 0.8% YoY.
- Downtown core softest. CityPlace and Liberty Village seeing the deepest concessions.
- End-user opportunity. Real leverage to negotiate 2-7% under asking on stale listings plus closing concessions.
- Investor math negative. $1,400+ monthly negative carry on a typical $620K one-bedroom; expect investor selling to continue.
- Assignments offer discounts. 8-15% under resale for buyers who can navigate the complexity.
